bushwhacked? – india at nuclear crossroads
After 60 years of independance
and one border war with China (1962),
and after three wars (1947, 1965, 1971) with Pakistan
and two major incursion battles (Siachen 1984, Kargil 1991) later,
suddenly America is now India’s friend!!!
For America is bending rules to supply N-fuel to India.
Reading many articles and commenting on three blogs later,
Ambassador Ronnen Sen….
The Indo-US Nuclear Deal: criticism addressed
123 Nuclear Deal, the Left and yet another mess, I feel uneasy.
I accept, India needs “energy” and lots of it, to develop, but so does every nation.
I also accept Nuclear Energy is “green” leaving zero carbon footprints.
To decide if N-Energy is the best option for India’s future is for the experts.
But as citizens of a democratic country, we all have a say in how India proceeds.
India has two nuclear states as neighbours, with unresolved border issues and threats.
India, a sovereign state, has every right to defend her border in the best possible way.
Jawaharlal Nehru, is quoted to have said, in 1946,
As long as the world is constituted as it is, every country will have to devise and use the latest devices for its protection. I have no doubt India will develop her scientific researches and I hope Indian scientists will use the atomic force for constructive purposes. But if India is threatened, she will inevitably try to defend herself by all means at her disposal.
How can we have forgotten within forty years, that in the 1971 War,
Nixon sent military supplies to Pakistan through Jordan and Iran! in direct violation of the US Congress-imposed sanctions on Pakistan, and encouraged China to increase its arms supplies to Pakistan.
An aware America that stayed silent when China helped Pakistan to build N-weapons.
Without our own nuclear arsenal
I stay convinced the South Asian geography today would well have been very different.
I have so far learnt, this is the nuclear world order, as it stands today:
The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was opened for signature in 1968, and has been in force since 1970.
A total of 190 parties have joined the Treaty so far, including the five nuclear-weapon StatesStatus: Entered into force on 5 March 1970. On 11 May 1995, it was decided that the Treaty should continue in force indefinitely.
It is a multilateral treaty with the objective to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to try to achieve nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.
The (NPT) granted non-nuclear-weapon states access to nuclear materials and technology for peaceful purposes as long as they committed not to develop nuclear weapons.
The Treaty also represents the ONLY binding commitment by the nuclear-weapon States at the multilateral level to the goal of nuclear disarmament. To ensure the goal of non-proliferation and to build confidence between States parties, the Treaty created a safeguards system under the responsibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The International Atomic Energy Agency
International Atomic Energy Agency was set up in 1957, the Agency works with its 144 Member States (03/2007) and multiple partners worldwide to promote safe, secure and peaceful nuclear technologies.
It is an independent international organization regulated by a special agreement by the UN. The IAEA reports annually to the UN General Assembly and, when appropriate, to the Security Council regarding all matters relating to international peace and security.
India has been a member since 1957.
The Nuclear Exporters Committee
Nuclear Exporters Committee
Knowing that materials and technologies used in peaceful nuclear programs could also be used to develop weapons, several NPT tried to clarify in relation to the treaty under what conditions and what specific equipment and materials and could be shared with non-nuclear-weapon states.They formed the Zangger Committee in 1971 to require states outside the NPT to institute IAEA safeguards before being allowed imports of certain items that could be directly used to pursue nuclear weapons. These items were collectively referred to as the “Trigger List.”
It was India’s explosion of a nuclear device in 1974, that reconfirmed the fact that nuclear materials and technologies acquired for peaceful purposes could be diverted to build weapons. In response to India’s action, several Zangger Committee members joined up with France to establish the NSG to further regulate nuclear-related exports.
The NSG added technologies for control to the original Zangger Committee’s “Trigger List.” This became Part I of the NSG Guidelines.
NSG members also agreed to apply their trade restrictions to all states, not just those outside the NPT.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
The 45 nations of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that have voluntarily agreed to coordinate their export controls governing transfers of civilian nuclear material and nuclear-related equipment and technology to non-nuclear-weapon states.
Members can be any state that conducts exports appearing on the Guidelines may apply for NSG membership. They are evaluated on their proliferation record, and adherence to international nonproliferation treaties and agreements, and national export controls.
There are several countries with nuclear programs outside the NSG, most notably India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was adopted on 10 September 1996 by the United Nations General Assembly and opened for signature on 24 September 1996.
Status: Not yet in force, it will enter into force after 44 States have ratified it.
This treaty would ban the signatory states
1. undertaking “any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion, and to prohibit and prevent any such nuclear explosion at any place under its jurisdiction or control”
2. to “refrain from causing, encouraging, or in any way participating in the carrying out of any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion”.The US Atomic Energy Act of 1954
US Atomic Energy Act of 1954
America’s export of nuclear material is governed by this US Federal law, of which the Section 123: Co-operation With Other Nations, in its present form, stops US from negotiating this trade deal with India.
The United States is now willing to provide India access to civilian nuclear technology through the United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act 2006.
This is despite India not being a signatory to either the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), this prohibits the sale of any form of nuclear material or know how to India by any country of the NSG.
So why should I welcome this new found friendship with open arms?
Is it ONLY in the name of improved trade and/or continuous supply of cheap and or clean energy?
Surely that would be better served by signing upto the NPT.
Trade with anyone.
If YES, then I ask are we still to continue our military nuclear programme?
And if YES, are we promising never to divert even a ‘grain’ of material imported to it?
If NO, is America, a member of NPT, IAEA and NSG knowingly flounting all the rules.
My priorities can only lie in the best interests of
India
the present World order,
the earth and her environment, … but it should not be with America’s.
What is the motive? Where is the catch?
I ask why is America suddenly so friendly and generous? I still feel uneasy.
America
India
Nuclear Bomb
trade
Non N-proliferation
atlantean said this on August 26th, 2007 at 16:11
Little Indian,
India does not sign the NPT because it represents the same sort of nuclear monopolisation that the NSG does.
The NPT consists of 189 members, five of whom are declared nuclear powers and the rest nonnuclear powers. No other state except these five, all of which have tested their nukes before 1967, can possess nuclear weapons.
Acceding to the NPT would be harakiri for it would take away India’s sovereignty. If India accedes, it would do so as a Non Nuclear Weapon State because according to the NPT, Nuclear Weapon States are only those which tested their nukes before 1967. India, which has tested in 1974 and 1998, simply cannot accept this silly condition. India would accede only when it is accepted as a Nuclear Weapon State de jure.
little indian said this on August 26th, 2007 at 17:08
@ atlantean,
thanks for stopping by
I agree, to sign NPT means trade with the members of NSG only.
But if our PRIMARY reason is just TRADE for better, cleaner energy for the future, that would be the honest way, everything above board.
The 123 agreement (which I may go into in future) IS not GUARANTEED to get us into the NSG, China may veto that unless Pakistan is also given the same status.
So we are being asked to accept a deal which ties us to one single country, with strict preconditions for 40 years. A country that can no longer be trusted to follow International Law, or UN regulations.
And every year, before reporting back to the Congress we will be susceptable to arm twisting by the US President with the threat that any “unforseen circumstances” and we have to return it all.
That is stupid.
Weren’t the Russians prepared to give us reactors with no such clauses, I wonder why that was turned down.
I only read the worst possible outcome if we DO NOT sign, why is everyone cagey about what is the worst possible scenario if WE DO SIGN and then India is accused of breaking the deal, and / or other regulations of N-trade. Even WORSE is if our non-compliance with any of USA’s future foreign policies is considered by them as an “UNFORSEEN CIRCUMSTANCE”?
Manmohan Singh has to come clean put on record what that would be.
If Bush is powerful enough to bend the 123 section of their Atomic Energy Act, he is well capable of excluding Section 123 a) (4) altogether and negotiate a better opt out clause or tie in period.
It is a question of who wants this deal more, and who has a stronger nerves. Or who is being honest. I hate backhanded deals.
But as you agreed, we cannot ditch the military N-programme,
it would be suicidal. For signing the deal could well be a different form of Harakiri.
I know your take on this, but you have not convinced me.
Thanks for your comments anyway.
Dweep said this on August 26th, 2007 at 20:02
Little india…you’re skepticism is warranted. But note that the deal is not really about energy. That is simply a means to an end. For the US that end is a “strategic partnership” with India. Why is the US suddenly so generous – in order to convert skeptics such as yourself into allowing India a closer relationship with the US. They are, essentially paying here for 40 years of distrust.
The aim for India is similar – to create a niche for itself outside the NPT. This deal effectively places India on par with the 5 nuclear weapons states. That is because it gives India (almost) all the benefits of being a full signatory to the NPT, while having to sign all of its safeguards.
Referring to your note on neurojava, note my previous article about the Henry Hyde Act (a US law) still applies to the current debate. Because in the Indo-US relationship, the Hyde Act will supercede the 123 Agreement. More here and here
little indian said this on August 26th, 2007 at 21:19
@ Dweep,
thanks for stopping by.
What you are saying is, this IS NOT about Energy or “Trade”. I am glad that you are atleast honest about this.
But a “strategic partnership”, like they had with Saddam Hussain when they wanted to destroy Iran? Or with the Mujahedeens to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan?
Please remind me how those “strategic partnership”s eventually turned out? And remind me who gave nuclear know how to Iran, and are now getting ready to nuke them?
Petrodollar is fighting to survive against the petro-euro; and
America is in a face off with Russia-China(-Iran). They have realised very late, Pakistan is very friendly with China and the Taliban to be a reliable ally. Ofcourse the neo-con war machine has to occupy Iran, for oil, and even more so to protect the petrodollar.
So dangle the carrot at the stupid Indians, they will feel so flattered, they will join hands with us. And we will launch a proxy war like we had between Iraq and Iran, from the safety of the White House and Pentagon.
America doesn’t pay anyone anything unless there is something more for them in return. Neither do they bother to “convert skeptics like me ” with generosity, they bomb them out of existence (or if so called allies, back to the stone ages). To trust Bush and his neo-con cronies is not just stupid, but suicidal. I would rather sleep with a rattlesnake.
What you wrote and the manner in which you write makes me distrust this even more. It seems only those with a personal or business interest will support this.
I prefer to read the Hyde Act, the 123 Agreement in their original text and make my own judgement, so I am passing on your links. I also prefer to gather my own evidence, (and not from CNN or FoxNews.)
Thanks anyway, for your comment,
I did not find any substance in your explanations.
ClapSo said this on August 27th, 2007 at 00:48
Nuclear power is the most expensive (long term) and dangerous way to supply a countries energy needs there is! It is not in any way a good choice for any country. Wind, water, and solar power are the only sensible solutions to our worlds energy needs…
The scientifically impossible I do right away
The spiritually miraculous takes a bit longer
little indian said this on August 27th, 2007 at 01:02
Thanks Clapso,
what is your opinion about this agreement which Bush made into a Law,
and the way America seems to be skirting around the NPT?
afrit007 said this on August 27th, 2007 at 02:42
Nuclear power is hardly “green”. It may have a very low, if not zero, “carbon footprint”, but it remains the most dangerous and expensive energy source developed to date. No one has yet developed a safe way of disposing of the waste produced, and in fact the most common method (reprocessing the rods) only produces more waste and increasingly dangerous technologies.
In view of America’s track record in dealing with the middle east and subcontinent, especially this administration, you are right to be skeptical. This is, after all, a man who has with a straight face suggested we develop low-yield nuclear weapons for “tactical” use in modern conflicts. He has also shown little patience with international laws and treaties with which he disagrees (for clarification, see Guantanamo Bay). Anyone who makes a deal with him is playing a very dangerous game indeed.
granderbharata said this on August 27th, 2007 at 06:34
clapso,
no offense but wind (not much potential in india) water(again not much potential in india) solar(lots ofpotential) in india.Are going to be much much much more expensive to set up than nuclear power and take a hell of a lot of time.
little indian , the world is not fair. There will be a catch. Just that india will be better off with that catch than no nuclear power
Dweep said this on August 27th, 2007 at 07:39
Thanks little indian for your candor. While you’re reading, I suggest you also read a bit about “realism” to inform yourself of international relations.
earthpal said this on August 27th, 2007 at 08:39
First of all, I agree totally and fully with ClapSo about nuclear energy and I’ll add that it’s far from being a clean energy.
As for this Bush agreement, the American administration is once again arrogantly ignoring its own committments and Bush is seeking to change US law here, there and everywhere to suit his agenda. Iran is a signatory of the NPT and is being deprived of access to civil nuclear materials. India hasn’t signed the treaty but Bush is willing to cooperate and declares it as a responsible state. Well we certainly can’t criticise India for looking after its own interests but I think Bush is being deliberately provocative and two-faced. I’m not just skeptical. I’m totally untrusting. He’s playing games. He has an agenda here. Here’s a guy who lifts his country’s Asian arms embargo and sells a missile fleet to Pakistan and an anti-missile system to India. Hmm. What does that tell you?
Might as well smash the NPT, America is blatantly disregarding it. Britain is too in its plans to replace Trident. Once again, thanks largely to George Bush and his usual arrogant double standards, the world is living under the threat of the bomb.
little indian said this on August 27th, 2007 at 11:02
thanks granderbharata,
I do not have a problem if Mr Singh explains what the catch(es) are and why he thinks accepting those catches is the best way forward.
I also would like to know what the worst possible scenario that India may face. For I hope it is not facing American nukes ever.
The problem arises, when the government does not come clean and raises doubts amongst the general public.
little indian said this on August 27th, 2007 at 11:21
@ Dweep,
that was uncalled for.
Unless you can prove the questions I raise are un-“realism”, in both senses of the word,
you can keep such comments to yourself.
This is a blog for us simple people, we use our common sense to question the world we live in.
Your university knowledge of “realism” is being wasted here.
I am sure there are educated gullible intelligents elsewhere who will appreciate your superior knowledge.
I “suggest” you do not waste your time and efforts here any further.
little indian said this on August 27th, 2007 at 11:25
@ afrit,
thanks for stopping by.
I am not an expert on the working of the nuclear industry.
But I agree totally with you on your observation about trusting Bush.
He and his government should not be trusted at all.
little indian said this on August 27th, 2007 at 11:29
@ Earthpal,
I agree totally.
Bush is a champion of double standards.
Anyone who says he is playing fair is deluded.
I want our Prime Minister to come clean on this and forget his stance and let the deal be discussed and debated.
I am hoping this deal, in its present form does not get the NSG approval.
Little Indian: Bushwacked? « Earthpal said this on August 27th, 2007 at 13:39
[…] Earth, Moments, Politics, Humanity, News — earthpal @ 2:39 pm Little Indian is hosting an excellent debate over on his blog regarding the recent nucular nuclear agreement between Bush Inc. and India. […]
ClapSo said this on August 27th, 2007 at 22:56
The US government is run by criminals. They should be in jail, not running the country and the world into the ground. I am against this latest criminal act of the bush crime family. This criminal regime is destroying the NPT and a whole host of other treaties that took decades to build.
The scientifically impossible I do right away
The spiritually miraculous takes a bit longer